White Christmas Forecast: Thaw May Erode Snow Cover In Midwest, Northeast

A white Christmas is likely only for the usual spots in the northern tier of the country and mountain West, with warming temperatures expected to eat away the impressive December snowpack in parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

How it's defined:Meteorologists define a "white Christmas" as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

It's snowcover, not falling snow, that counts. So, if there's no snow on the ground in the morning, and an inch of snow falls that afternoon or evening, it doesn't count as a white Christmas.

The latest forecast:The map below shows our latest forecast. Areas in the darkest teal contour have the best chance of at least 1 inch of snow cover Christmas morning. Those in the light teal shading have a chance, but it's not a guarantee.

Those in the gray contour, well, perhaps you can wish for one next year.

This forecast may change in the days leading up to Christmas morning. But, we expect this general shape to the Christmas snow cover.

It may be very close to thesnow cover last Christmas, which was less expansive than average, with only 26% of the country having snow on the ground, according to NOAA. However, for those lucky enough to be in the city for the holidays,New York's Central Park had its first white Christmas in 15 years in 2024.

(MORE:A Short History Of White Christmas)

What about all the current snow cover:This outlook may have some of you in the Midwest and Northeast scratching your head.

Parts of the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor hadtheir first snow of the season last weekend. And it's been a snowy stretch since the weekend after Thanksgiving in a swath of the Midwest from Iowa and the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes. Springfield, Illinois (18.9 inches) is having its snowiest start to any "winter season" since 1893, with almost as much snowfall as they average an entire season through spring (21.8 inches).

Chicago's O'Hare Airport has picked upalmost as much snow as they did all last season, and it's only mid-December.

It's also beenone of the top 10 coldest first halves of December on recordfor several Midwest and East cities, including Green Bay, Wisconsin, Cleveland and Scranton, Pennsylvania, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

(MAP:Where Snow Cover Is Right Now)

Warmer trend:First, a general warming trend is kicking off in much of the country that will last into Christmas week. That includes the snow-covered, recently cold Midwest and Northeast.

Yes, there will be some cold fronts in the days ahead. But these cold air intrusions are expected to be increasingly pinned to the northern tier and won't last as long as recent cold snaps.

So, that's one reason why we expect the extent of snow cover in the Midwest and East to erode by the holiday.

(MAPS:Current Temps|10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

Where snow may fall through Christmas:Given that warmer pattern, we don't expect much snow in the eastern two-thirds of the nation except near the Canadian border and Great Lakes snowbelts.

But it's not all bad news if you love a white Christmas.

We do expect more mountain snow in the West through Christmas, as the map below shows. That's especially the case in the Cascades, Sierra and northern Rockies where recent record warmth and atmospheric rivers of rain have significantly depleted the snowpack. So, if you're spending Christmas on a ski slope in these areas, you may feel like Santa has delivered.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him onBluesky,X (formerly Twitter)andFacebook.

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December 16, 2025

White Christmas Forecast: Thaw May Erode Snow Cover In Midwest, Northeast

A white Christmas is likely only for the usual spots in the northern tier of the country and mountain West, with warmi...

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Christmas Travel Could Be Dicey Across Parts Of The US This Weekend. Here's A Sneak Peek

With more than 100 million of us traveling through the holiday season, arriving to our destination safely (and on time) will be key.

We know the weather can be a toss up this time of year, so here's a sneak peek at what the holiday weekend travel rush might bring.

Friday

Friday will bring unsettled weather to both coasts, with mostly quiet weather in between. Travel should be pretty easy on the roads across the mid-section of the country, but watch for mounting delays due to dicey weather in the Pacific Northwest and East Coast along with the Great Lakes.

Pacific Northwest:This flood-weary region will still be dealing with rain and snow, from back-to-back atmospheric river events. Anywhere from central California to Washington state will be dealing with slick roads and possible airport delays. Watch out for mountain snow and conditions on the mountain passes, as several feet of snow are forecast this week. This also includes parts of the northern Rockies.

East:A cold front will be pushing across the eastern portion of the country on Friday, so lingering rain across the busy I-95 corridor could slow you down. Also, wintry precipitation will stick around for interior portions of the Northeast which could make for dangerous road conditions and airport delays. Lingering snow for some of the Great Lakes will make for dangerous travel for parts of Upstate New York, Pennsylvania and the northern Appalachians.

Airports to be impacted: Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Boston, Washington, D.C.

Saturday

Saturday will most likely be the best travel day of the weekend. The system in the East has moved out, and the only real trouble spots will be in the West. Rain and snow from an atmospheric river will keep the region unsettled.

West Coast, Rockies:Lingering precipitation will be possible from Washington to central California, however, not as intense as days prior. Mountain snow will impact the Cascades and portions of the Rockies as well. Make sure you check snow conditions before hitting the roads in this region.

Great Lakes:Some spots could still be dealing with snow around the Great Lakes, however, mostly limited to Michigan and northern Wisconsin.

Airports to be impacted: Seattle, San Francisco, Salt Lake City

Sunday

There looks to be a resurgence of moisture on Sunday in the West unfortunately, with more rain and mountain snow possible. There could also be more rain and snow in the East, for extreme northern portions of the interior Northeast. Lastly, possible showers begin to pop up across the South that could impact and/or slow your holiday travel plans.

West:While all the fine details are still a bit uncertain, models are suggesting another surge of moisture in the West by Sunday. This means more heavy rainfall for areas already hit hard by rain and flooding, and another round of mountain snow for the higher elevations and possible mountain passes.

East:Gulf moisture could enhance rainfall from the Gulf Coast to the Appalachians. Snow will be possible for the interior portions of the Northeast as well.

While it doesn't look like a major system at this time, we will continue to monitor the forecast and update with any changes.

Airports to be impacted: Seattle, San Francisco, Boise, Nashville

Monday

Monday will basically be a rinse and repeat of Sunday. With rain and snow continuing in the West and rain for parts of the South. More snow starts to creep into the Upper Midwest as well.

West:As the water-logged West continues to deal with rain, make sure you check ahead to see what the travel conditions will be like on the roads, as well as he airports. Plan on delays if you are traveling through Seattle or Portland. Also check conditions of the mountain passes, as days of snow could have an impact on trecherous travel in the higher elevations. Snow will still be falling for portions of the Cascades and northern Rockies.

South:Showers will stick around in the South on Monday, stretching from Houston to Lexington. Plan extra time if you are traveling I-55, I-65 or I-20 across the South.

Airports to be impacted: Seattle, Portland, Jackson, Nashville

This Weekend's Temperature Outlook

As you travel this weekend, keep in mind that there will be huge temperature swings across the country. And even huge swings day-by-day in certain cities this weekend.

The Southwest will stay warm, and it will even be pretty mild in places like Denver (although temperatures will be steadily dropping here). The South will stay warmer than we have been recently, with a gradual warmup through the weekend in Atlanta.

Temperatures are more interesting in the North. Highs in the Upper Midwest will stay in the teens and 20s through the weekend, but with an advancing cold front across the region, places like Chicago and New York City will be on a bit of a temperature roller coaster through the weekend.

Make sure you check back often since the forecast will likely change. We hope you have a wonderful and safe holiday season.

Jennifer Grayis a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.

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December 16, 2025

Christmas Travel Could Be Dicey Across Parts Of The US This Weekend. Here's A Sneak Peek

With more than 100 million of us traveling through the holiday season, arriving to our destination safely (and on time...

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Grief, tears and anger as funerals for people slain in Australian antisemitic mass shooting begin

SYDNEY (AP) — With harrowing expressions of grief and declarations of faith, hundreds of mourners gathered in Sydney on Wednesday to begin funerals for the victims of anantisemitic mass shootingin which gunmen targeted Jews celebrating Hanukkah.

The two shooters slaughtered 15 people on Sunday during a Hanukkah celebration atBondi Beach, with more than 20 other people still being treated in hospitals. All of thevictims identified so farwere Jewish.

The funerals began as a country reeling from its deadliest hate-fueled massacre of modern times turned to searching questions, growing in volume since the attack, about how it was able to happen. As investigations unfold, Australia faces a social and political reckoning about antisemitism, gun control and whether police protections for Jews at events such as Sunday's were sufficient for the threats they faced.

First, however, was a day of anguish for families from Sydney's close-knit Jewish community who gathered, one after another, to begin to bury their dead. The victims of the attack ranged in age from a 10-year-old girl to an 87-year-old Holocaust survivor.

A father of 5 who ministered in prisons is buried

The first farewelled was Eli Schlanger, 41, a husband and father of five who served as the assistant rabbi at Chabad-Lubavitch of Bondi and organized Sunday's Chanukah by the Sea event where the attack unfolded. The London-born Schlanger also served as chaplain in prisons across New South Wales state and in a Sydney hospital.

"After what happened, my biggest regret was — apart from, obviously, the obvious – I could have done more to tell Eli more often how much we love him, how much I love him, how much we appreciate everything that he does and how proud we are of him," said Schlanger's father-in-law, Rabbi Yehoram Ulman, who sometimes spoke through tears.

"I hope he knew that. I'm sure he knew it," Ulman said. "But I think it should've been said more often."

Funerals draw heavy police presence

Outside the funeral, not far from the site of the attack, the mood was hushed, tense and grim. A heavy police presence was visible on nearby streets, with officers checking identification cards of people making their way to the service.

Jews are usually buried within 24 hours from their deaths, but funerals have been delayed by coronial investigations.

Among others killed were Boris and Sofia Gurman, a husband and wife aged in their 60s who were fatally shot as they tried to disarm one of the gunmen when he got out of his car to begin the attack. Another Jewish man in his 60s, Reuven Morrison, was gunned down by one shooter while he threw bricks at the other, his daughter said.

Many children attended the Hanukkah event, which featured face painting, treats and a petting zoo. The youngest killed was Matilda, 10, whose parents urged attendees at a vigil on Tuesday night to remember her name.

"It stays here," said Matilda's mother, who identified herself only as Valentyna, pressing her hand over her heart. "It just stays here and here."

Charges are likely against one suspect

The suspects in the massacre were a father and son, aged 50 and 24, who had carried out "a terrorist attack inspired by Islamic State," Australia's federal police commissioner Krissy Barrett said Wednesday. The father, whom state officials named as Sajid Akram, was shot and killed.

His son, who hasn't been formally named by the authorities, was being treated Wednesday at a hospital, where he had woken from a coma. Mal Lanyon, police commissioner for New South Wales state, where Sydney is located, told Australian news outlets that investigators expected to speak to and charge the younger suspect on Wednesday.

The authorities have said the younger suspect came to the attention of the security services in 2019 but have supplied little detail of their previous investigations. Now investigators will probe what was known about the men.

That includes examining a trip the suspects made to the Philippines in November. The Philippines Bureau of Immigration confirmed Tuesday that Sajid Akram traveled to the country from Nov. 1 to Nov. 28 along with Naveed Akram, 24, giving the city of Davao as their final destination.

Groups of Muslim separatist militants, including Abu Sayyaf in the southern Philippines, once expressed support for IS and have hosted small numbers of foreign militants from Asia, the Middle East and Europe in the past. Philippine military and police officials say there has been no recent indication of any foreign militants in the country's south.

The younger suspect was Australian-born. Indian police on Tuesday said the older suspect was originally from the southern city of Hyderabad, migrated to Australia in 1998 and held an Indian passport.

Leader pledges action on guns and antisemitism

The news that the suspects were apparently inspired by the Islamic State group provoked more questions about whether Australia's government had done enough to stem hate-fueled crimes, especially directed at Jews. In Sydney and Melbourne, where 85% of Australia's Jewish population lives, awave of antisemitic attackshas been recorded in the past year.

After Jewish leaders and survivors of Sunday's attack lambasted the government for not heeding their warnings of violence, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese vowed Wednesday to take whatever government action was needed to stamp out antisemitism.

Albanese and the leaders of some Australian states have pledged totighten the country's already strict gun lawsin what would be the most sweeping reforms since a shooter killed 35 people in Port Arthur, Tasmania, in 1996. Mass shootings in Australia have sincebeen rare.

Albanese announced plans to further restrict access to guns, in part because it emerged the older suspect had amassed six weapons legally. Proposed measures include restricting gun ownership to Australian citizens and limiting the number of weapons a person can hold.

Australians come together to grieve

Meanwhile, Australians seeking ways to make sense of the horror settled on practical acts: Hours-long lines were reported at blood donation sites and a mound of floral tributes at the shooting site has grown wider by the hour. At dawn on Wednesday, hundreds of swimmers formed a circle on the sand, where they held a minute's silence. Then they ran into the sea.

Not far away, part of the beach remained behind police tape as the investigation into the massacre continued, shoes and towels abandoned as people fled still strewn across the sand.

One event that would return to Bondi was the Hanukkah celebration the attackers targeted, which has run for 31 years, said Ulman.

Ulman said Hanukka on Bondi Beach, an annual event for the past 31 years, must continue. Schlanger had been involved in its organization for the last 18 years. People like the attackers hoped to make people feel that it was dangerous to live as Jews, Ulman said.

"Eli lived and breathed this idea that we can never ever allow them not only to succeed, but anytime that they try something we become greater and stronger," he said.

"We're going to show the world that the Jewish people are unbeatable."

Graham-McLay reported from Wellington and McGuirk from Melbourne.

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December 16, 2025

Grief, tears and anger as funerals for people slain in Australian antisemitic mass shooting begin

SYDNEY (AP) — With harrowing expressions of grief and declarations of faith, hundreds of mourners gathered in Sydney on W...

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Nick Reiner’s Lawyer Alan Jackson Called Rob Reiner’s “A Few Good Men” an Inspiration

Michael Buckner/Variety via Getty; TED SOQUI/EPA/Shutterstock; Todd Williamson/JanuaryImages/Shutterstock

NEED TO KNOW

• Attorney Alan Jackson spoke highly of Rob Reiner's 1992 legal drama A Few Good Men, before representing his son, Nick Reiner

• The 32-year-old is accused of murdering his parents, Rob and Michele Singer Reiner

• Jackson told Vanity Fair he was a fan of the Tom Cruise-starring classic in July

Long beforeAlan Jacksonsigned on to representNick Reinerfor the murder of his parents, the Texas-raised attorney was a fan ofRob Reiner's work.

On the morning of Tuesday, Dec. 16, Jackson confirmed to reporters that the 32-year-old — who is formallycharged with the murdersof the 78-year-old film director and his 70-year-old spouse,Michele Singer Reiner— would be his client.

However, months before the Dec. 14 slaying, Jackson toldVanity Fairhe looked to one of Rob's movies in particular when it came to his career as a defense attorney.

BACKGRID; Lane Turner/The Boston Globe via Getty

"I've seen it so many times and it gives me such a boost," Jackson said in July of the 1992 legal drama,A Few Good Men.

Jack Nicholson,Tom Cruise,Demi Moore,Kevin BaconandCuba Gooding Jr.were among the all-star cast. The movie followed a military lawyer defending two U.S. Marines charged with killing a fellow Marine at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba. It was nominated for the Best Picture Oscar, the only Oscar nomination of Rob's career.

At the time of the interview, Jackson, a Pepperdine University School of Law graduate, had just earned a legal victory withKaren Read's murder acquittal in June.

Jackson previously representedKevin Spaceyin his Massachusetts groping case, which wasdismissedwhen the actor's accuserdropped their civil complaint.

The Werksman Jackson & Quinn LLP partner was also on the team that defendedHarvey Weinsteinin his California criminal trial. Weinstein wasconvicted on rape chargesandsentenced to 16 years in prison.

Now, Jackson will represent Nick after his mother and father were found dead in their Brentwood, Los Angeles home by their 28-year-old daughter,Romy.

Nick is being held without bail at the Men's Central Jail in L.A. after police arrested him near the University of Southern California campus.

The evening before their deaths, Nick and Rob got into a heated argument at a holiday party hosted byConan O'Brienon Saturday, Dec. 13.

"Nick was freaking everyone out, acting crazy, kept asking people if they were famous,"a source told PEOPLE.

John Nacion/Variety via Getty

Rob and Michele then reportedly left the party after the argument, according toTMZ.

The late couple'smiddle childpreviously spoke about his struggles with addiction, telling PEOPLE in 2016 that the habit led him to live a life on the streets.

Want to keep up with the latest crime coverage? Sign up forPEOPLE's free True Crime newsletterfor breaking crime news, ongoing trial coverage and details of intriguing unsolved cases.

At the time,Nick told PEOPLEhis life in and out of shelters came after he refused to go back to rehab: "If I wanted to do it my way and not go to the programs they were suggesting, then I had to be homeless."

In addition toA Few Good Men, Rob was also known for his role as Mike on the Norman Lear sitcomAll in the Family, as well as directingThis Is Spinal Tap(1984),Stand By MeandThe Princess Bride(1987), among other films.

Read the original article onPeople

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December 16, 2025

Nick Reiner’s Lawyer Alan Jackson Called Rob Reiner’s “A Few Good Men” an Inspiration

Michael Buckner/Variety via Getty; TED SOQUI/EPA/Shutterstock; Todd Williamson/JanuaryImages/Shutterstock NEED TO KNOW Attorney Alan Jack...

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Rob Reiner opened up about son Nick's drug addiction and his own regrets dealing with it: 'There's no end'

Robin Marchant/Getty

The lateRob Reinerhad spoken candidly about his son, Nick — who is nowcharged with his parents' deathson Sunday — and his attempts to help him with his substance abuse.

"There's no end to it," Reiner toldEntertainment Weeklyfor EW Radio on SiriusXM in 2015 when his movieBeing Charlie, which was based on his family's own experiences with addiction, was released. "Whatever the issues are that you will struggle with and the reason why you self-medicated with either drugs or alcohol or gambling or sex addiction — whatever it is — those issues are there."

He continued, "And you have to wrestle with them and deal with those issues your whole life. And, hopefully, with the right kind of help, you can manage, and you can manage those things, so that you don't wind up self-medicating. And those issues are always gonna be there, and we don't wrap it up with a happy bow. Its life goes on."

Get your daily dose of entertainment news, celebrity updates, and what to watch with ourEW Dispatch newsletter.

Nick, 32, was officially charged Tuesday in the murders of his parents, Rob and photographerMichele Singer Reiner.

The director of popular movies such asWhen Harry Met SallyandThe American PresidentdescribedBeing Charlieas "the most personal film that I've done."

Reiner noted that Nick had gone into "a number of rehab programs" in his late teens, and he wanted to present the story from the perspective of his son, as well as himself and his wife. He said the project helped him to better understand what Nick experienced, even though he had attended meetings on the subject.

TheAll in the Familyactor said what they'd been through had taught him a lesson.

"I learned something that I should have known from the beginning, which is that as a parent you know your child better than any expert would," Reiner said. "And I listened."

Rommel Demano/Getty

Reiner said he would listen to anyone with "a desk and a diploma" while contending with his son's addiction, because he didn't know which action to take.

"You don't know what to do with your child is struggling with this, and you wanna help them because your first charge as a parent is keep your child safe," Reiner said. "And if you see them running into the street, you wanna grab them before the truck hits them. So I didn't know what to do, so I did what they told me, but what I've learned is that you know your child better, and I should have listened to my own gut more than what the experts were telling me."

In the same conversation, Reiner explained that he'd told Nick many times that he was "the heart and soul of this film."

Read the original article onEntertainment Weekly

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Rob Reiner opened up about son Nick's drug addiction and his own regrets dealing with it: 'There's no end'

Robin Marchant/Getty The lateRob Reinerhad spoken candidly about his son, Nick — who is nowcharged with his parents' deathson Sunday —...

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Apple Martin Borrows One of Gwyneth Paltrow's Iconic Dresses for “Marty Supreme” Premiere and Twins with Mom

Ron Galella, Ltd./Ron Galella Collection via Getty; John Nacion/Variety via Getty

NEED TO KNOW

• Gwyneth Paltrow's two children, Apple and Moses Martin, accompanied her to the New York City premiere of Marty Supreme on Tuesday, Dec. 16

• There, Apple wore one of her mother's iconic dresses from the '90s

• Apple took it one step further and twinned with her mother as they both donned chic and sleek black ensembles

Apple Martinis happy to steal from her motherGwyneth Paltrow's closet.

Paltrow was joined by her two children, Apple, 21, andMoses, 19, at the New York City premiere ofMarty Supremeon Tuesday, Dec. 16. The actress shares both with her ex-husband,Chris Martin.

Apple took coordinating with her Oscar-winning mom one step further by wearing the same sleek, sexy black Calvin Klein gown that Paltrow wore to the July 1996 New York City premiere ofEmma.

Like her mother, Apple styled the look simply, wearing her long blonde hair in a stylish updo with a pair of diamond stud earrings.

Paltrow, 53, wore a sophisticated black ensemble that included a black velvet bodice that featured a boat neckline and an oversized bow on one shoulder. The gown's black sheath skirt included a deep slit and matching velvet pointed-toe pumps.

Dia Dipasupil/WireImage

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Paltrow's children have been joining her atMarty Supremeevents as she marks her first on-camera movie role since 2019. Moses accompaniedPaltrow to the film's Los Angeles premiere on Dec. 8.

There, Paltrow sported a strapless black gown from her label, Gwyn. Moses wore a brown-and-black suede sweater with matching corduroy pants and shoes.

Kevin Mazur Archive/WireImage

Before Apple donned her mother's Calvin Klein ensemble, Paltrow shared how her daughter has an affinity withthe label's designs from the '90s. In an April 2024 conversation onToday with Hoda & Jenna, Paltrow revealed Apple is "abscond[ing] with many '90s Calvin Klein skirts, tube skirts, and all kinds of slip dresses," adding, "She's very into the '90s as all the kids are apparently right now."

"She loves to go into the archive and try things on, and it's really fun," Paltrow said

In September, the pair opened up toVogueabout sharing clothes — or, in Apple's case, borrowing her mother's vintage pieces.

"Weirdly, I started saving clothes for Apple about 15, 20 years before she was born," Paltrow told the magazine. "I don't just see a top, I'll see a moment in my life and all the circumstances surrounding it. I've always saved everything in hopes that I had a daughter one day who would want to go in there."

Dia Dipasupil/WireImage

The Goop founder added, "Sometimes we just play dress up andshe'll put on my Oscar dressesand stuff like that."

Apple noted that her mother is "such a badass when it comes to fashion and has just done what she wants and doesn't really care."

She acknowledged that her mother "influenced" her, adding, "I feel like I'm finally getting to the place where I don't really care what people think."

Marty Supremeopens in theaters on Dec. 25.

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December 16, 2025

Apple Martin Borrows One of Gwyneth Paltrow's Iconic Dresses for “Marty Supreme” Premiere and Twins with Mom

Ron Galella, Ltd./Ron Galella Collection via Getty; John Nacion/Variety via Getty NEED TO KNOW Gwyneth Paltrow's two children, Apple ...

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In Senegal, climate change is adding to historic tension between farmers and herders

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Cheikh Diouf and his father had just delivered a load of manure to the family's fields near their village in January when Diouf, returning home for a second load, got an urgent phone call from his sister-in-law: His father, she said, was arguing with a group of herders. By the time Diouf raced to the field, his father was dead, struck down by machete blows.

There was no trace of the attackers, but Diouf and his family blame herders whose animals had grazed into the cassava fields that Moussa Diouf was cultivating. The elder Diouf, in his 60s, spent most of his time in the fields or at a mosque where he served as muezzin, performing the daily call to prayer.

"It hurts so much," Diouf, 18, said. "If only I had been there, he wouldn't have died. Either I or the herder would have died — but not my father. If I ever meet that herder, I will avenge him, that's for sure."

Tension between farmers and herders has long been a fact of life in West Africa, butclimate changeis ramping it up. Declining rainfall andrising temperatures have dried uppasture land at the same time agricultural use has expanded. And that's meant more frequent conflict as nomadic herders, and their cattle, sheep and goats, range through the region searching for grazing.

Changing weather patterns in Senegal breed conflict

Senegal has averaged about 27% less annual rainfall in the past 30 years than it did from 1951 to 1980, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Meanwhile, farmers also complain that it's become impossible to determine when the rains will begin and end — sometimes delaying seeding or damaging crops.

The Peul, or Fulani, are herders who have traditionally raised animals across a vast territory from Senegal to Nigeria.Their nomadic movements are essential in a regionthat doesn't produce enough vegetation to feed a large number of animals in one place all year long. They also supply two-thirds or more of the meat and milk sold in the region's markets, according to a United Nations study.

In Senegal, the approach of the dry season in October and November typically sees them moving their herds southward from the semi-desert northern region along centuries-old routes. But in recent decades, that southward journey has become longer as they've had to search for more favorable land, and it's during this migration — which overlaps with harvest — when disputes between the two groups are worst.

Animals can struggle to find grazing because grass has often been cut to sell as forage. That can lead shepherds to cut branches from trees to feed their animals, contributing to deforestation and desertification. And when the animals pass near crops, which typically aren't fenced or monitored, they are attracted to the food.

It's difficult to get accurate data on violent incidents because Senegal doesn't have a specific investigation system in place and most aren't officially recorded. They're often mediated locally with village chiefs overseeing. But Senegalese media have reported numerous instances since 2024, including a death in Amdalah and serious injuries in Diounto, both in January 2025.

Everyday tools become weapons

Both shepherds and farmers use cutting tools in their daily work and in disputes they can easily be weapons. That's the case with the diassi, a small machete that can cut tall grass or wood to build a hut, cut branches to feed an animal or serve as protection against wild animals or cattle thieves.

Dr. Yawma Fall, deputy head of the Ndofane medical center in the Kaolack region, said in the past 18 months she has seen wounds from clashes between farmers and herders. She described a shepherd about 12 years old struck in the shoulder with an ax by a man apparently angered because the boy's livestock entered his field. She described another shepherd who lost fingers when he was struck with a blade.

In the Saint-Louis region, near the Mauritanian border, an ordinary day in the fields in 2022 turned into a confrontation that cost Mamadou Gueye, a 39-year-old farmer, his left hand. He described a fight with a herder over cattle that included a motorbike chase.

"As soon as they saw us coming, they drew their machetes to scare us. That's when I was struck — I saw my blood flowing fast," he said. He added: "The relationship between us and the herders is very tense; we mistrust each other. There's no friendship between them and me."

What farmers and herders say

On the outskirts of the village of Ndofane, 45-year-old Fode Diome sits beneath a tree where he spends most of his days watching over his fields.

Problems between herders and farmers have existed for a long time, he said.

"It's normal that animals need to eat, I agree, but there are specific times when transhumance is allowed," he said, using the term for moving livestock to new grazing areas.

"Unfortunately, most herders don't respect this rule, and that causes damage. They're allowed to come only after the harvest, when all fieldwork is done, usually in January and not before. Sometimes the nomads stay here until the next rains, and we ask them to leave because we need to prepare the fields for the new season."

For herders, finding pasture is a major concern, complicated by the gradual expansion of land under cultivation. They also have the burden of nurturing their animals through winter, as well as costs of veterinary care and feed that are difficult for the average herder.

"There's no grass left for the livestock. Everywhere you go, there are fields. It has become very difficult," says Alioune Sow, a 61-year-old herder from Linguere. "Especially after the rainy season: if you don't move with your animals in search of pasture, you're forced to buy feed. There are no cattle paths. Since fields are almost everywhere, the animals wander into them and sometimes they get poisoned."

Sitting on a worn wooden platform in the shade of a large, low canopy, he keeps watch over his goats, gathered inside a small enclosure within Dakar's sprawling livestock market. He said he hasn't had major disputes with farmers, but some of his relatives have.

He said one possible solution would be to designate land specifically for farmers and other areas reserved for herders.

What's being done to manage the problem

Senegal doesn't have a national entity that manages conflict between agriculture and herding. Mediation falls mainly to local communities, helped out by associations and other nongovernmental bodies.

Labgar, a village in the Louga region, has managed to defuse some of the tensions between farmers and herders, said Papa Khokhane Seydou Faye, the village's agricultural and rural adviser since 2017. Many longtime nomadic routes pass through the village.

With help from NGO workers, the village organizes periodic meetings with members of both groups on sensitive issues such as fires, deforestation and grazing conflict, to talk about possible solutions. In one workshop, the solutions discussed for grazing conflict included more clearly marking grazing trails as well as field boundaries.

Associated Press data journalist M.K. Wildeman contributed from Hartford, Connecticut.

The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. For global health and development coverage in Africa, the AP receives financial support from the Gates Foundation. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP'sstandardsfor working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas atAP.org.

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December 16, 2025

In Senegal, climate change is adding to historic tension between farmers and herders

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Cheikh Diouf and his father had just delivered a load of manure to the family's fields near the...

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